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Profile Likelihood: What To Do When Maximum Probability of Detection Never Gets To One

The statistical techniques in MIL-HDBK-1823A work for the large majority of situations, but not all situations. When the model (any mathematical model, not just a probability of detection [POD] model) does not have the same characteristics as the data, then it is the wrong model. Two, not uncommon, examples are a POD minimum value that never approaches zero, perhaps due to background noise, or a maximum POD that does not approach one, possibly a result of an occluded inspection site, while the MIL-HDBK-1823A requires asymptotes at both zero and one. The authors discuss a statistical procedure for adding an asymptote to the standard POD model, estimating its most likely value, and computing confidence bounds on that estimate. KEYWORDS: POD, probability of detection,

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